The Problem Is Not That Forecasts Are Wrong – but That They Are Built Wrong
Forecasts are necessary.
Companies have to make decisions about the future.
Investments, capacity, priorities, risk. None of this works without looking ahead.
So the problem is not that forecasts exist.
The problem is what they are based on.
Forecasts Do Not Fail Because of Math – but Because of Logic
Most forecasts are formally correct.
The calculations are right.
The models are clean.
The numbers are consistent.
And yet they lead to wrong decisions – or worse: to no decisions at all.
Why?
Because they try to calculate uncertainty before reality has actually changed.
Probability Without an Event Is Not Steering
The core mistake of modern forecasting is simple – and fatal:
Probability is assigned without a meaningful event having taken place.
A good conversation increases the probability.
A workshop increases the probability.
A positive feeling increases the probability.
A full calendar increases the probability.
But none of that changes reality.
An event is something else:
- A decision has been made
- A budget has been released
- A risk has been explicitly accepted
- A commitment is binding
Without such events, every probability is just an assumption.
And assumptions are not a foundation for decisions.
The Real Damage: Forecasts Create False Certainty
A wrong forecast is not dangerous because it is inaccurate.
It is dangerous because it is plausible.
It creates the feeling:
“We know enough to wait a little longer.”
And that is where the problem begins.
Instead of deciding, organizations observe.
Instead of clarifying, they refine.
Instead of drawing consequences, they re-evaluate.
Not out of convenience.
But out of perceived rationality.
Bad Forecasts Do Not Cause Wrong Decisions – They Cause Decision Avoidance
This is the real point.
A bad forecast rarely leads to an actively wrong decision.
It leads to no decision at all, because the numbers are “not clear enough yet”.
- One more update
- One more review
- One more month
The forecast provides the perfect justification.
Not because people do not want to lead.
But because no one wants to lead on a flawed foundation.
Forecasts Fail When They Quantify Feelings Instead of Reality
Many forecasts do not measure what has happened.
They measure how confident people feel.
That is human.
But it is not a steering model.
A robust forecast is not based on:
- opinions
- moods
- optimism
- experience alone
It is based on clear transitions:
- What has objectively changed?
- What is no longer reversible?
- Where has possibility turned into obligation?
Without that logic, every number becomes a delay tactic – unintentionally.
The Uncomfortable Truth
Forecasts are necessary.
But they are only as good as the events they are tied to.
If forecasts do not enable decisions,
the problem is not a lack of courage –
it is a lack of causality.
Organizations do not wait because they hesitate.
They wait because they sense that the numbers do not force anything.
A good forecast does not answer:
“How safe does this feel?”
It answers:
“What has happened – what follows from it – and what still needs to happen?”
Everything else is not a forecast.
It is hope with a calculation.
Why Good Questions Create More Revenue Than Good Forecasts
Companies invest enormous effort in forecasts.
Models. Probabilities. Scenarios. Updates.
And surprisingly little effort in what actually creates revenue:
the right questions at the right time.
The result is predictable:
Many numbers.
A lot of activity.
Very little clarity.
Forecasts Describe – Questions Change
A forecast describes a state.
A question changes it.
Forecasts say:
- “This is where we are.”
- “This is how likely it is.”
- “This is how we could plan.”
Good questions say:
- “Why is no one deciding?”
- “What is actually missing?”
- “What happens if we do nothing?”
- “Who carries the risk – and why?”
The difference is fundamental.
Forecasts observe reality.
Questions force reality.
Revenue Is Created by Clarification, Not Estimation
No customer buys because a forecast looks good.
No deal closes because a probability increases.
Deals close when:
- a decision is made
- a risk is accepted
- a problem can no longer be postponed
- someone takes responsibility
None of that happens through calculation.
It happens through confrontation – with the right questions.
Forecasts Reward Smoothness – Questions Create Friction
Forecasts love clean pictures:
- upward curves
- round percentages
- consistent storylines
Good questions destroy that.
They surface:
- ambiguity
- contradictions
- missing decision-makers
- unspoken doubts
And that is exactly why they are asked so rarely.
Not because they are impolite.
But because they have consequences.
Bad Questions Feed Forecasts – Good Questions Make Them Obsolete
Most forecasts exist because the wrong questions were asked earlier.
For example:
“How likely is the deal?”
instead of
“What would have to happen for it to become real at all?”
Or:
“When could the deal close?”
instead of
“What is preventing it – today?”
Forecasts compensate for missing clarity.
Good questions create it.
Good Questions Are Uncomfortable – and That Is Why They Work
A good question rarely feels good.
It:
- slows down conversations
- interrupts routines
- forces positioning
- exposes excuses
Examples of revenue-relevant questions:
- “Who really decides – and who just pretends to?”
- “What happens if you decide against us?”
- “Which internal risk are you trying to avoid right now?”
- “Why is this important now – and not three months ago?”
These questions do not increase close probability.
They change the reality in which a close becomes possible.
Forecasts React – Good Questions Lead
Forecasts are reactive.
They respond to what has already happened – or what feels like it has.
Good questions are active.
They determine what happens next.
That is why good questions create:
- shorter sales cycles
- clearer decisions
- cleaner exits
- more reliable revenue
Not because they are clever.
But because they bring leadership into the conversation.
The Uncomfortable Truth
Companies with many forecast meetings often have poor conversations.
Companies with good questions need fewer meetings.
Not because they abandon planning.
But because they know earlier:
- where reality begins
- where hope ends
- where a “no” is more valuable than a “maybe”
Revenue is not created by better numbers.
It is created by better questions.
Everything else is statistics.
And statistics do not sell.
